Running with the past

There have been a lot of polls released recently about the race for governor in Wisconsin. The results vary quite a bit with everything from a statistical tie to a ten-point lead for Governor Doyle. Who knows which of the polls is the most accurate? Whether or not he is tied or ten points behind shouldn't be what Republican Mark Green is concerned about. He should be concerned about the number of voters that still have no opinion of him.

The election is about eleven weeks away and in the latest poll done by WISC-TV, 34 percent did not have an opinion of Green. In the polling world, that means they have no idea who Mark Green is.

And sooner or later, despite Green's best efforts, they will learn that Green is a U.S. Congressman. That title carries with it anemic approval ratings of anywhere from 29 to 36 percent this month. In fact the disapproval number for Congress has dipped below 50 percent in only one of the dozens of polls taken this year and has even been as high as 73 percent.

Typically candidates drive up their numbers by talking about all of the good things they have done in their last couple of jobs. This is especially true if they have held another public office prior to the one they are seeking.

A quick look at Green's 2002 campaign website shows that he did use this method in the past. His accomplishments section included phrases like "during his second term in Congress" and "Mark Green emerged as one of the key leaders in the U.S. House of Representatives" as a way to convince voters to send him back.

None of the ads we have seen from his campaign so far talk about anything he has done in Congress. They talk about things everyone loves like brats, Brett Farve and whether or not to have perch or cod for dinner, but not about Green's time in Congress.

So how will he win over the 34 percent that don't know him without talking about his experience? His lawn will need to be mowed a few more times between now and the election, but more commercials with him on a lawn mower aren't going to move too many people.

He may try to keep modifying his record in Congress to win over voters. He has already started voting differently and this week we saw him trying to distance himself from his leadership role in the Victory in Iraq Caucus.

Green can gain some ground by running ads against Governor Doyle, but it is very risky for Green to run ads too early that are perceived to be negative by the public. If the only thing a voter sees is a candidate "going negative", they think poorly of the candidate running the ad.

The recent attempts by the Green Team to spit shine Green's record in Congress suggests they have realized that they have to acknowledge he is a congressman and just make the best of it by rewriting the history of Green's record. Green has a long record to account for in Congress so that project should keep them busy until election day.