Dale Schultz's fantasy world

Wispolitics held a luncheon today with Senate Minority Leader Judy Robson and Senate Majority Leader Dale Schultz. And Schultz was really working hard to sell an alternative reality to what is going on in the state senate races.

At one point in the discussion Schultz said there is no chance that the Republicans would lose control on the state senate. After he said that, I hope everyone stopped listening to what he said. Come on, this is politics. There would be a chance even if the Democrats hadn't recruited good candidates who are doing well fundraising in this anti-incumbent Republican year. And if you can't admit that, you can't be honest about anything.

Robson didn't try to sell people on some pie in the sky absolute win for the Democrats. She said there is a better than fifty-fifty chance that the Democrats will take control. And she's right.

But now that I've heard right from Schultz's mouth that he can't even admit that this is a tough year for his caucus, other things that I've heard make more sense. The Republicans have been trying to tell people that Senator Dave Zien (R-any place I can get tax money for riding my motorcycle) is up by ten to twelve points. That doesn't wash with any other polls out there. That race is close and truth be told, Zien's opponent, Pat Kreitlow, is just slightly ahead. Even a dead heat at this point is great news for Kreitlow since outside groups have spent thousands on radio up there over the last few months trying to prop up Zien and no one has put up a negative ad against him.

The 21st Senate District has started to swing for Rep. John Lehman. Polling shows him up now that folks have gotten know his opponent, William McReynolds, a little better. And Lehman has moved ahead of McReynolds despite Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce (WMC) running negative ads against Lehman.

You can go here to see how the race for the 31st Senate District is going. Hint, it's not going well for Schultz's team. The Democrat, Kathleen Vinehout, is in a great position to beat Senator Ron Brown (R-Eau Claire).

The Senate Republicans had to raise a ton of money to defend Senator Joe Leibham's seat because he votes far more conservatively than his district. His opponent, Jamie Aulik, has a great story to tell and continues to raise money to get that story out there. The anti-incumbent Republican mood that is hovering over the entire country could be enough to overcome Leibham's money advantage in this race.

And even though by the numbers the 5th Senate District is Republican, Senator Tom Reynolds(R-West Allis) will be hard pressed to get enough voters in his district excited about helping him and many may just skip that race rather than vote for him. Jim Sullivan is doing well and raising enough to get his message out to voters.

The Senate Republicans have also finally taken notice that one of their senators only has about $16,000 in the bank and has a candidate really energizing a lot of people about his candidacy. At first I didn't believe that there was a poll suggesting Senator Alan Lasee (R-De Pere) was in trouble, but since his leader hasn't said anything true in a while and they scheduled a Madison fundraiser for him last night, I'm starting to believe. His opponent, Charlie Most, is the Door County Board Chairman and his hard work has got people talking in the 1st Senate District and in Madison.

No one was expecting Senator Schultz to say there is only about a fifty percent chance he will still be the leader next session. But an honest look at the facts out there suggests if he doesn't start giving assessments of the landscape that are at least based in reality a little bit, no one will believe anything he says.