Assembly races to watch, part one

It's hard this year to predict what will happen in the Wisconsin State Assembly. We can take the Democrats gaining control of the body off the table, but after that, it becomes trickier to guess because there are so many races and this is an unusual year for Republicans in general. It's safe to say that the Democrats are going to pick up seats this year to start building back to a majority. The only question is how many?

The Republicans are only playing defense this year. They may be out there talking about some Dems that they are going to defeat, but that is just a smoke screen trying to hide the fact that there are fires burning in every part of the state for the Republicans to put out.

If you look at the races where the Republicans say they are on the attack, it's hard not to come away laughing. Rep. Donna Seidel's (D-Wausau) opponent lives in his mom's basement. Probably not going to win an election from the rumpus room. Rep. Amy Sue Vruwink's (D-Milladore) opponent seems to be in complete agreement with her on nearly every topic except that the legislature shouldn't pass so many bills. A theme of, "I agree with her but will do less" seems unlikely to win. Rep. Terry Van Akkeren's (D-Sheboygan) opponent received five votes when he ran for Mayor. Not five percent, five votes. Let's put that on in the win column for the Dems right now, shall we?

It should also be noted that the only two groups running ads for Assembly Democrats are the Farm Bureau (in the 37th) and All Children Matter (in the 25th) so this is anything but a typical year. Those are two groups that do not usually line up with the Dems.

And the Assembly Democrats have done a great job recruiting top notch candidates. Combine that with the fact that they have candidates on the ballot in every potentially competitive race in a year when Republicans on are the defensive and you have the makings for some surprises.

The 28th Assembly District - Incumbent Republican Mark Pettis (R-Hertel) defending against Ann Hraychuck. Ann Hraychuck is going to beat Mark Pettis. I know we always say we are going to beat Pettis and he manages to get by, but this time our candidate is just too good. Hraychuck is an experienced candidate that Pettis will not be able to dismiss as too liberal like he always does. Hraychuck is the former Polk County Sheriff and she actually has a picture of herself with a bear that she shot. She is also the former president of the Polk County Sportsman Club, the first female to hold that position. So, guns and hunting, the center of just about every attack Pettis made on his former opponents, goes out the window this time. Hraychuck also shut down about 15 meth labs during her tenure as sheriff. She comes off great in person and has been raising money and campaigning since the summer of 2005. Put this one down as a win for the Dems.

The 54th District - Open seat with Gordon Hintz running against Julie Pung-Leshke. This is a seat the Dems will also probably pick up this time around. The seat used to be held by a moderate Republican, Greg Underheim, and it is ripe for the picking. Hintz ran against Underheim last cycle and probably would have beat him if the Green Party candidate was not in the race. There is no Green Party candidate on the ballot this time and Pung-Leshcke comes with some baggage from her days on the Winnebago County Board. Pung-Leshke was the only one to vote against funding to expand the number of COP slots for seniors (a program that helps them stay in their home instead of being forced into nursing homes) and actually said she did so because she was afraid more seniors would want the services. She also quit the board in frustration saying she didn't realize how much work the job was going to be. Not a great place to start from if you want to be hired for a tougher job that is farther away.

The 80th District - Republican Brett Davis (R-Davis) defending against Janis Ringhand. It's time for a correction in this seat. This seat votes Dem just over 55% of the time and Davis has voted the way John Gard wanted him to vote lock, stock and barrel. If Davis had moderated his voting more than he had, he could have locked up this seat for the Republicans again with an entrenched Republican like they did with former Rep. Powers. But Davis voted for concealed carry, voted to criminalize some of the techniques used by stem-cell researchers, voted to put the constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage and civil unions on the ballot, and voted against requiring hospitals to carry emergency contraception for victims of rape or incest. And those are just the appetizers. A side note on his concealed carry vote - Davis did vote for an amendment to prohibit the weapons from being carried into banks, but voted against amendments that would have prohibited them in places where kids go like Chuck E. Cheese. So the banks deserve to be protected from guns, but kids don't. Ringhand, the former Mayor of Evansville, is a strong candidate that is doing well fundraising and has a strong background to run on with deep ties to the community.

The 37th District - Open seat formerly held by Republican Rep. Ward. Democrat Andy Jorgensen running against Greg Gasper. This is a Republican leaning seat that could be picked up by the Dems because they have a good candidate. Jorgensen comes to the race with some name ID because he is a former radio personality from the area. He also has a strong blue-collar background many in the district can identify with as their own. Gasper's primary victory was impressive given that the powers that be had decided they didn't want a Capitol staffer as the candidate. But I'd really like to think that you can't win a race if you don't say how you stand on any of the major issues. He may be reluctant to take a stance on much after he lost the Farm Bureau endorsement over the one thing he did take a stand on - the ethanol plant. Gasper was initially against a plant in the area, but has since come out for it. But the damage was done and the Farm Bureau is backing Jorgensen.

The 67th District - Rep. Jeff Wood (R-Chippewa Falls) defending against Roberta Rasmus. This district votes Dem almost 51% of the time and Rasmus is a strong candidate. She has been on the Chippewa Falls School Board for over a decade and is very active in her community. She is keeping up with Wood in the fundraising department as well. Wood is far too conservative for a swing district and this could be the year he pays the price for his voting record. He votes for school cuts in his own district but fights to expand the School Choice program in Milwaukee because he takes thousands of dollars in campaign funds from a group that wants to expand it. Wood was also given a 100% rating in 2002 from Pro-Life Wisconsin, which means he does not support abortion rights even if the life if the mother is at stake or for victims of rape and incest. He didn't get the endorsement from them this year so must have moderated somewhat on this issue. But not enough for a swing district for this issue to be off the table for him. And let's not forget the debacle of the Taxpayer Protection Amendment. It's an unpopular issue and Wood led the charge on it, right into a brick wall called reality. Wood came away from that whole mess looking like he had no idea what he was doing.

Part two, with five more races to watch coming tomorrow.