Assembly races to watch, part two

The two races that the Assembly Republicans talk the most about as opportunities to pick up seats for their side is the open seat vacated by Rep. John Lehman in the Racine area and Rep. Tom Nelson's seat in the Green Bay area. I don't think they will pick up either seat.

The Democrat running to keep Lehman's seat in the Dem column, Cory Mason, has been running a good campaign for quite a while now. His family has deep ties to the community, he has been doing a lot of doors and has run up an impressive fundraising total. The average Democratic performance for this seat is nearly 55% which means it is pretty unlikely that the Republican in this race can convince that many Democrats to vote for him this year of all years.

It would be tough for the Republicans to beat Rep. Tom Nelson even if they had a good candidate. I don't think Nelson stopped doing doors from his first campaign. He has been working tirelessly in his district from the moment he got into office and people respond well to that even if they don't agree with everything a politician says. Nelson's opponent's campaign pretty much consists of painting his name on big bus and driving around in it so I think it's safe to say that Nelson will win his election.

So let's move on to the other five races where Democrats are making some waves.

The 29th District - Open seat with Democrat Kerry Kittel running against Republican John Murtha. This is a Democratic seat with an average performance of just under 52%. This seat used to be held by Democrat Joe Plouff until 2004. The area is trending Republican but a bad Republican year combined with a good Democrat candidate can bring this seat back into the Dem column. Kittel is a long-time teacher that has been very active in his community that has turned out to be a very strong candidate.

The 49th District - Gabe Loeffleholz defending against Phil Garthwaite. This seat is trending Democrat. In the last Presidential election, Senator John Kerry got just over 51% of the vote here. That's bad news for Loeffleholz because he has been voting like a strong conservative. Loffleholz is a pretty low-member, but he is so low key that he just goes along with everything his leadership tells him to do. That includes voting against things when he should know better. He voted against allowing more family farmers into the BadgerCare program even though he is a farmer himself and should know how tough it is for farmers to afford health care. He is endorsed by Pro-Life Wisconsin which means he doesn't support abortion even to save the life of the mother. He also sponsored and voted for a bill to criminalize some of the scientific techniques used by stem cell researchers and supported the concealed carry bill while refusing to vote for amendments that would have kept them out of places like Chuck. E Cheese. That place needs a lot of things (to help parents keep their sanity), but guns is not one of them. The Democrat in the race, Phil Garthwaite, also has a family farming connection and was the Farm Director at a local radio station so he had some name ID coming into the race. Loeffleholz has raised a decent amount of money to protect himself, but Garthwaite just might squeak by him giving the trending of the seat and the anti-Republican mood of the country overall.

The 23rd District - Open seat with Democrat Stan Templin running against Republican Jim Ott. This is the seat being vacated by Republican Curt Gielow. And while the Republicans have recruited someone with built in name ID (Ott is a former TV weatherman), the Dems have recruited a fantastic candidate that has outraised Ott so far. Templin is a former Mequon Alderman and he has a really good field operation in place for election day. The area is trending Democratic so this could be an upset.

The 90th District - Republican Karl Van Roy defending against Gary Froseth. The 90th is a classic swing district. It has a Democratic performance of 50% on the nose. So having a good Dem candidate running against someone that has been voting very conservatively creates all the makings of a possible pick-up for the Dems. Froseth is a Lutheran Pastor and former union guy that has been very active in his community. Van Rooy has been voting like he comes from a district that is about 80% Republican and this could be the year that record catches up with him.

The 93rd District - Republican Rob Kreibich defending against Democrat Jeff Smith. This race is rematch from 2004 and Smith pulled in 48% of the vote last time. Kreibich must have been uncomfortable with how close Smith came because he went out and gathered a huge sum of money to protect himself. No doubt Kreibich will be tough to beat, but this seat has a Democratic performance of about 53% and Senator Russ Feingold pulls in about 60% here. Smith name recognition from last time and combining that with a bad year for Republicans could put this one in the Dem column this time with the right voter turnout.