Two potential sleeper Assembly races

There are two races to watch on Tuesday that could surprise people. The 1st Assembly District and the 51st Assembly District.

The 1st Assembly District is currently held by Garey Bies. He is being challenged by Democrat Ame Grail. The district is conservative but Grail cannot be written off as liberal Democrat. She is a former small business owner and currently a realtor. She has been very active in her community and has heard how unhappy people in that area are with the current legislature. Bies doesn't seem like he's even running to win this time and he could be handed a loss as a result.

The 51st Assembly District is currently held by Steve Freese and he is being challenged by Steve Hilgenberg. Freese has two big problems going into this race. Problem number one - he has built himself up as someone fighting to change Madison and now is one of the people that regularly stands in the way of change and his constituents know it. He could have been the vote to bring SB 1, an ethics reform bill, to the floor this session and chose his leadership team over his constituents. Problem number two - his district is trending Democratic in a big, big way. Senator John Kerry got just over 55% in 2004 and Senator Russ Feingold pulled in just over 59% that year.

The national trends also could help feed into the right people come out to vote on Tuesday giving the Dems two seats no one was expecting them to pick up.